China versus Taiwan?
4 min readFeb 18, 2025
Here’s how China, or any major power, would need to recognize the evolving dynamics of defense vs. offense in the context of cheap, adaptable technologies like drones:
The Shift in Modern Warfare: The Defender’s Advantage and the Drone Revolution
In today’s evolving battlefield, defense holds a distinct advantage — particularly due to the ability to remain hidden until the attacker reveals their position, which exposes them to lethal counterattacks. This shift has been made possible by the growing reliance on precision, long-range, and stealth capabilities, with drones playing a pivotal role in transforming the battlefield dynamics.
1. The Hidden Defender Advantage:
- Historically, military strategy emphasized the power of the offensive, often through large, easily visible forces designed to dominate through overwhelming power. However, modern warfare — especially with the use of advanced surveillance, reconnaissance satellites, and drones — has proven that the defender often holds the upper hand.
- By staying concealed and using advanced detection systems, defenders can wait for attackers to expose themselves. Once the attacker makes a move, they become vulnerable to immediate counteraction. Whether it’s a sniper, artillery, or drone strike, the moment the offensive force reveals itself, it’s open to precise retaliation.
- For example, even advanced technology like carrier strike groups or tanks are no longer impervious to smaller, cheaper threats. Drones have the ability to locate, track, and neutralize high-value targets, giving the defending force the ability to strike when the attacker’s position is known.
2. Drones: The Great Equalizer of Modern Warfare:
- Drones, once a tool used for surveillance and limited strikes, have evolved to become powerful offensive weapons that can impact battles on an unprecedented scale. These drones are not just for reconnaissance — they now carry significant payloads capable of inflicting serious damage.
- A major development is drones designed specifically to take out big-ticket items like aircraft carriers, tanks, and other high-value targets. For instance, drone swarms or specialized drones carrying anti-ship or anti-tank missiles can effectively disable or destroy capital ships or armored vehicles — forces that would have once been considered invincible.
- These systems offer a massive shift in strategy because they are affordable, mobile, and can be launched from virtually anywhere — land, air, sea, or even civilian locations. This greatly diminishes the role of expensive, large military assets that require extensive protection, as they become increasingly vulnerable to this cheaper, more versatile technology.
3. The Implications for China and the Future of Warfare:
- China, with its expansive ambitions in both military modernization and global influence, must recognize that simply building an imposing military force with large surface ships, carriers, and tanks is no longer sufficient for long-term dominance on the battlefield. The cost and vulnerability of these assets in the face of drone warfare challenge traditional strategies.
- China’s strategic goals, including its naval expansion in the South China Sea, must adapt to these new realities. An overreliance on expensive carriers and traditional military might could leave these forces exposed to the very cheap and effective drone technology that’s accessible to not just state actors but also non-state actors and insurgent groups.
- The key for future defense strategies lies in enhancing asymmetry. Just as drones provide an asymmetric advantage to smaller forces, China must develop countermeasures and deploy its own drone systems to protect its assets from similar threats. This includes utilizing drones for defense, interception, and surveillance, as well as using high-tech jamming and anti-drone technologies to ensure superiority in the cyber and electronic warfare domains.
4. The Future Battlefield:
- Modern warfare has already entered an era where swarms of drones and smaller, stealthy systems dominate the battlefield. Instead of classic large-scale engagements, we are seeing more targeted, precise conflicts where small, agile forces use cheap, disposable technology to counter larger, slower, and more expensive targets.
- As drones become cheaper and more capable, the balance of power shifts from sheer firepower to information and precision. The ability to detect, track, and neutralize the enemy through small, mobile units becomes critical. This evolution means that any attack force must be stealthy, adaptable, and fast, while defensive forces can be more distributed and decentralized, relying on smaller, faster, and harder-to-target assets like drones, underground bunkers, and advanced jamming techniques.
5. The Role of Cyber Warfare:
- Beyond drones, cyber capabilities will also shape the battlefield. China’s growing prowess in cyber warfare and its integration with drone operations further complicate the landscape. By attacking the communications infrastructure of an opposing force or disrupting drone networks, a defender can severely cripple an attacker’s ability to respond or control their forces in real-time.
China’s military strategies need to evolve, recognizing that modern war is no longer about sheer numbers or expensive, high-profile assets. It is about staying hidden, using cheap, precise drones to incapacitate larger targets, and controlling the battlefield through stealth, precision, and cyber dominance. The defender’s advantage is very real, and any future attacker must account for the vulnerability of large forces in an age where drones can easily turn the tide of war.
